The 2020-21 Champions League produced an all-English final, and Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United are still in this year’s competition.
After Chelsea beat Manchester City in the Champions League final last season, a supercomputer gave both teams a better than 20% chance of reaching this season’s showpiece.
While the venue for the final remains uncertain, with UEFA having to deprive Saint Petersburg of the final after Russia invaded Ukraine, the prospect of another all-English final remains a possibility.
Chelsea, City and Liverpool all have a lead to take in the second leg of their respective last 16 games, while Manchester United’s 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid keeps them very much in the game.
Pep Guardiola’s side have the best chance of going all the way, after their near-failure last term, but the stats suggest none of the English sides can be ruled out.
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Manchester City have an over 99% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model, thanks to their 5-0 away win against Sporting CP in the first leg of the round of 16.
Guardiola’s men also have the best chances of reaching the semi-finals (69%) and final (45%), while their 26% chance of winning it all is higher than any other side.
Premier League title rivals and 2019 Champions League winners are the most likely next champions, with a 21 per cent chance, with 2020 winners Bayern Munich following at 18 per cent, although they won’t. only managed a draw against Red Bull Salzburg.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is the relatively low placement of Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, with the two heavyweights 3% and 4% respectively to claim the trophy after Kylian Mbappe scored the game’s only goal when the teams met at the Parc des Princes.
It’s still higher than Manchester United, slight favorites over Atletico Madrid to reach the last eight but just 1% for the title, but Chelsea and Ajax have reason to be cautiously optimistic with FiveThirtyEight giving both 10% chance of silverware.
When we add up the combined odds of Man City, Liverpool, Bayern, Chelsea and Lille, we get a whopping 85% – that means there’s more than a four in five chance of any member of the quintet emerging victorious in Russia (or elsewhere the final is moved, if the Krestovsky stadium is absent) in May.
FiveThirtyEight’s model also ran the numbers for this season’s Europa League and Europa Conference League, with none of the remaining British sides among the favourites.
West Ham were given a 5 per cent chance of Europa League glory after being given a bye to the last 16, with Rangers 2 per cent ahead of the second leg of their play-off round, while Rennes – who helped eliminate Tottenham of the Europa League Conference – leads the way with Feyenoord in this competition with a 14% chance of success.