Last week didn’t quite go our way. Despite picking winners in all three games, we ended up with an ROI of 72.5%. It wasn’t helped by Southampton’s 2-1 home loss to Watford where one less yellow card or one more goal would have seen us profit from the match. It was a similar story with Leeds United and their 2-1 home win over Norwich. Two goals in injury time prevented us from taking advantage and a penalty was strangely canceled out, again costing us a profit. Burnley also cost us a late win, conceding twice in the final ten minutes at Brentford. This week there are only four games on the schedule, so we’ll take a quick look at each game and pick a few bets that appeal to each of them.
Before you read on, remember these important points: sports betting should be fun. If you’re not having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. And if you don’t agree with my picks, don’t bet on it. I’m far from a professional player and I’m just enjoying a moment of football. All I do is look at the stats to try to find potential value in the most likely outcomes. I will predict the score of every game I watch (although these are notoriously difficult to pick, so I’m not suggesting you bet on them meaningfully) and I’ll pick the bets that I think offer the best value , so it will be down to you what you bet on and how.
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EPL 2021-22 betting picks
- Total Choices: 111-180-15 (-25.74 units and 90.97% ROI)
- Match results: 33-41
Friday, March 18, 2022
Leeds United (+241) at Wolves (+125) – 4:00 p.m. ET
Wolves’ campaign is back on track with back-to-back wins and clean sheets coming into the weekend. Leeds’ eight-game winless streak ended with their 2-1 win over Norwich last weekend, but they needed a 94th-minute winner to secure all three points, although in truth they should have been out of sight long before Norwich equalized in the 91st minute.
I can’t look past the home team to win this one. Prior to last weekend, Leeds had gone four games without a goal and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in their last fifteen league games. Wolves (23) have conceded the fourth-fewest goals this season and will be looking for their twelfth clean sheet of the season.
I also like the booking market in this one. Leeds (85) have received more yellow cards than anyone in the league and Wolves (48) have received the seventh fewest. Wolves haven’t received more than two bookings in any of their last five games and only four in total in those games.
Leeds have received three or more yellow cards in five of their last six games, totaling 23 in that span. They average 2.7 yellow cards per away game while Wolves average 1.7 yellow cards per home game. I expect the visiting team to pick up more bookings than the hosts.
Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 0 Leeds United
Choice of bets
- Moneyline – Wolves (+125) 1 unit
- Handicap bookings – Leeds United -0.5 (-114) 1 unit
Saturday, March 19, 2022
Arsenal (+144) at Aston Villa (+203) – 8:30 a.m. ET
Arsenal’s five-game winning streak was ended by Liverpool on Wednesday and it will be their third game in less than a week, with manager Mikel Arteta recently questioning the fairness of the schedule. Aston Villa’s three-game winning streak was ended at three by West Ham United last weekend.
Arsenal’s form has been very good despite losing in midweek, with just two defeats in their last 12 EPL games, both against the top two teams in the league. A third game in less than a week could stretch an already thin squad so they can face it on Saturday.
Aston Villa’s form has been so rocky it’s hard to know what to expect. But they have plenty of attacking talent to cause trouble for anyone in the league and in 13 home league games they’ve only managed to score once and found the net at least twice in eight of those games. They only have four clean sheets at home.
Arsenal struggled in the second half of away games and have the second-worst second half record in away games. They have only beaten their opponents on the road once in the second half and in 12 away games they have scored six goals. Three of them have come bottom of Norwich City’s table. They have 13 first-half away goals.
Prior to their loss to Liverpool, when Arsenal’s previous winning run ended in defeat to Manchester City, they struggled to a goalless draw with Burnley. I see a similar story here with the game being pretty close and a share of the points could be on the map.
We will also be playing in the corners market, with no team reaching seven corners in the game. Arsenal have only reached that tally once in 12 away games, while Aston Villa have also only reached that tally once in their 13 home games.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Arsenal
Choice of bets
- Score 1st half – Arsenal (+106) 1 unit
- 7-Corner Race – Neither (-135) 1 unit
Sunday, March 20, 2022
Brentford (+248) at Leicester City (+124) – 10:00 a.m. ET
Brentford have won their last two games to allay relegation fears and have returned to scoring form with five goals in those two wins. That largely goes to top scorer Ivan Toney, who has scored his five goals in the last two games and is responsible for Brentford’s last seven EPL goals (five games).
Three of his last five goals have come from the penalty spot and that’s something we’ll be looking at this week. Leicester City (seven) have conceded the second most penalties this season, including one last week in their 2-0 loss at Arsenal. No team have taken more penalties than Brentford this season, with six.
The referee for this game will be Darren England who has awarded seven penalties in 11 EPL games this season. He has taken charge of four Brentford games this season, in which three penalties have been taken. Anyone who reads my articles will know that I am very critical of the Leicester defense (especially Çağlar Söyüncü who is apparently still on the verge of an accident and gave away a penalty last weekend) so I expect until a penalty is taken this week.
Leicester managed to cringe in their Europa Conference League draw with Rennes on Thursday and despite some changes to their starting XI, their squad are stretched and their form in EPL games after a European game has been poor. top to bottom (as is the case for so many people).
In the nine EPL games Leicester have played after a midweek European fixture, they have four wins, two draws and three losses. Last weekend was the first occasion they failed to score after a European draw and they have 19 goals scored and 12 conceded in those nine games.
With Leicester averaging 3.2 goals in games after a European Cup match and with three or more goals in six of nine games, we’ll back 2.5+ goals in this fixture.
While I think Brentford can create an upset, I can also see a scenario where Leicester lack convincing winners. With the midweek rest for Brentford, that adds to the uncertainty, so I’m protecting myself against playing the moneyline in this game and will stick to goals and props.
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 2 Brentford
Choice of bets
- Total Goals – Over 2.5 (-106) 1 unit
- Score Anytime – Ivan Toney (+140) 0.5 Units
- A penalty to take – Yes (+163) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet – Brentford (+142) 0.5 units
West Ham United (+405) at Tottenham (-137) – 12:30 a.m. ET
The final game of the weekend will see rivals West Ham travel to Tottenham, with both sides still chasing fourth place and qualification for next season’s Champions League. Both teams had midweek encounters but they were very different and could give the hosts an advantage.
While I don’t necessarily agree with the odds, I fancy Tottenham winning this after a routine 2-0 win over Brighton on Wednesday. West Ham had to play extra time on Thursday as they overcame a 1-0 first-leg deficit to beat Sevilla 2-0 and progress to the Europa League quarter-finals.
The differences in their midweek encounters could be a key factor, but I think Tottenham’s chances of victory are too short, especially against a side they have failed to beat in their last three games. championship (including a 3-3 draw in which they were 3-0 up after 16 minutes and still trailing by that scoreline with less than ten minutes remaining).
This game can create memorable games and moments, so I’m not looking to play the moneyline, but a little pinch on West Ham getting something from the game is something I could get behind. Instead, we’re going to back whichever team scores in this game, which has happened in three of the last five league meetings between these two.
Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his last six league games and has scored in each of his last four. In 17 EPL games against West Ham, Kane has scored 11 goals and at positive odds, we’ll take him to score again on Sunday.
In Tottenham’s 28 league appearances this season, there have been 38 first-half goals and 41 second-half goals. In West Ham’s 29 EPL games, there have been 35 first-half goals and 49 second-half goals. I’m expecting a few goals in this one so I’ll be backing a goal to score in both halves as well.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 – 1 West Ham United
Choice of bets
- Both teams to score – Yes (-134) 1.5 units
- A goal scored in both halves – Yes (-150) 1.5 units
- Score Anytime – Harry Kane (+105) 1 unit
- Wolves win, Arsenal score in 1st half, Brentford/Leicester over 2.5 goals, Tottenham/West Ham both teams score (+1473) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!