English Premier League Week 10+ Betting Tips

The football continues this week with Premier League games and more.

So which team should you bet on and what are the big storylines? Our analysts are there to provide you with all the information you need.

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

Manchester City handled Manchester United quite easily last week (6-3) with hat tricks from Erling Haaland and Phil Foden. This time around they get Southampton. Is there any value in betting Foden (+150) or maybe even Kevin De Bruyne (+175) for a goal at any time? Will the goals continue for City or dare you go under 3.5 goals in total for the game (+100)?

Paul Carr: It looks like a game in which City can name their score. Playing any City striker to score a goal is reasonable, as long as they start. I’m struggling to see Southampton score a goal, given that the Saints have the fifth-fewest goals expected and take the third-worst shots in the league this season. City have scored in every game and scored at least 1.8 expected goals in all but one while posting four clean sheets in eight games. City will score and Southampton won’t, so I’ll take a City win to zero at -117.

Wolves sacked Bruno Lage – clearly fearing, even after just eight games – that he was not the one to stop them relegating. Are they right to worry? They are currently (+260) to be relegated. Specifically, Wolves are (+850) this weekend against Chelsea. Does anyone believe in wolf magic after the revamp?

Carr: Yes, Wolves are right to worry about relegation, as they have a league-low three goals and underlying numbers to match, with the second-fewest expected goals and second-worst shots in the league. Goalkeeper Jose Sa wasn’t bad; he just wasn’t superhuman like he was last season. I don’t like any of the prizes in this game. If I were to gamble anything, I’d be looking at under 2.5 (-110). In three games under Graham Potter, Chelsea haven’t generated a ton of big chances (1.2 xG per game) nor conceded much either (0.4 xG per game), and Wolves are unlikely to change that. A victory for Chelsea to zero (+103) is not a bad cry either.

Dan Thomas: Wolves are obviously hoping for the new manager to bounce back and they might just get it against a Chelsea side who picked up their first Champions League win of the season. I think the win may have taken Potter’s side, so I fancy a draw.

Brighton have scored eight goals in their last two EPL games and can now really try to make a claim that the side are in the top four of the table against Tottenham. Do you expect this to be a high score affair? More than 3.5 goals (+230)?

Carr: I like over 3.5 goals at +230, considering how open both teams have been lately. Brighton’s last two games have scored at least six goals each, and four of Brighton’s seven games this season have scored at least an expected 2.9 goals. Tottenham’s last two games have scored at least four goals and four of the last five have scored an expected 3.4 goals. It’s a long way of saying that the two teams create and concede a lot of chances to score. Both teams are looking for good shots on the counter, so it could be cautious early on and then open up once a goal is scored.

Thomas: I don’t believe anything involving Spurs is a high-scoring affair at the moment. They just don’t click, and Brighton have a very good chance of taking advantage of that. I will win Brighton.

What’s your best bet for the weekend?

Carr: I’m a broken record, but give me both teams to score at Bournemouth-Leceister City (-140). Of Leicester’s last 30 away games, 27 have seen both teams score. That trend will be tested by a Bournemouth side who have a record 51 shots (24 less than any other team) and 3.7 expected goals (half of any other team) this season. But Leicester’s leaky defense should be up to snuff, having allowed 22 goals, a league high this season and allowing the league’s third-best shots.

Thomas: I would take the upper hand in the Sevilla Athletic Club draw. Sampaoli back in charge of the host combined with Atheltic scoring for fun, I think it will be a very entertaining game with high scores.